Future graphs will be difficult to generate because New Jersey DOH has discontinued detailed reporting. WNV positives are, after 7/27/01, only reported en masse, and with no details. However, NYCDOH does give detail but NYC has downplayed WNV publicity so there is relatively little reporting, as of 8/9/01.

Item	Correlations	Comment
Peaks and Valleys	Correlates one-to-one for every peak and valley.	The fundamental correlation exists. This is also found in the year 2000 graph.
Synchronicity	Correlates, however, ozone levels often follow WNV activity.	Correlates but causative contradiction. Ozone follows WNV activity, especially in the early part of the summer. This is seen in year 2000 data. If ozone is the causative agent then it would be expected to lead. Three facts explain this: 1) Ozone is an indicator of the larger complex of air pollution. 2) Ozone is a reaction product to air pollution and therefore follows the larger complex of air pollution (see ozone sources in footnotes). 3) Ozone, being a product of sunlight UV reactions, is not at ground level as often as soon as other pollutants. This is also found in the year 2000 graph.
Amplitude	Correlation is not obviously consistent in the early months.	The effects of air pollution on health are cumulative, thus accounting for lack of amplitude consistency during the early summer. Amplitude correlates, however, in terms of cumulative sensitivity on the part of the animals, and this correlation becomes more visually obvious as the summer progresses. This also is found in the year 2000 graph.

Essentially, the basic correlation (peaks and valleys) correlate strongly. Synchronicity and amplitude are ther, but are slow starters, correlating more strongly as the summer progresses. These items are also found in the year 2000 graph and the Staten Island Refuge year 2000 graph.

Ozone is a natural reaction product to pollution caused by sunlight's ultraviolet light disassociating O2 and oxides and forming O3 (ozone). This occurs more efficiently when air is polluted and when sun enters the atmosphere at a sharp angle (from 90 degrees), such as during the summer from noon through 5pm. Ozone also works the reverse reaction, combining with the pollutants to form nitrous oxides, NO, NO2, NOx, sulfides, etc.

Thus ozone indicates air pollution and serves as an oxidative, reversible "energy spring" for the pollution complex, storing the energy of the ultraviolet light.

Increasing WNV activity through July, as seen in the ozone patterns in the above graph.

Increasing WNV activity until the end of September, based upon graphs from year 1999 and 2000.

More reporting for NJ because of increased funding and improved labs and reporting protocol in year 2000.

Less bird reporting for NYC because of greatly reduced publicity. NJ is rarely mentioned in NYS media, even though the NJ epicenter is adjacent to the NYC epicenter for 2000 (Staten Island).

The ozone pattern in the last generated graph provides a forecast for future WNV activity, which will be confirmed on the next graph that will be provided as soon as more data is available.

WNV Birds Accumulative : USGS/CDC WNV Counties Map
May 23, 2001	August 6, 2001